Hey Bly!! Dahle!!

Pass some worthwhile legislation. Like taking care of inattentive drivers, texting and talking on their cell phones!!

I know your more concerned with funding teachers pensions and taking care of the unions, Education Minnesota and pushing mass transit and “green” energy. Making sure the roads are fixed by passing mass, PORK laden, Transportation bills and then claiming you created jobs, which you did for the short term. To bad no one has jobs to drive on these roads..Anyone with half a brain knows the government cannot produce anything but paper, legislation and regulations that restrict access to new opportunities because employers are regulated and taxed until they have no money to reinvest. When is the last time you actually had a paycheck not issued by a government entity? Been awhile?

Mr Bly I see you have been appointed to the House Jobs Task Force! Hey look at all the experience you have in that area!! NOT!!! What a joke.

But how about actually doing something?

And stopping this?

Tesco put up Christmas decorations on October 27. Is anyone out of their minds?

(c) Petr Bokuvka

Some people in Tesco probably think that the first company or store that reminds people of the upcoming Christmas will win the most customers and have them spend money. Tesco in downtown Brno put up Christmas decorations this week, i.e. almost two months before the Christmas Eve and one month “before winter”.

The store even has a TREE in the lobby.

This particular store is an old-fashioned department store. It has aisles with Tupperware next to groceries or underwear. The goods are usually “no name” and the atmosphere is absolutely terrible… Especially the clothes are hideous…

Be it as it may, having a Christmas tree in late October is ridiculous. Of course, it is a business strategy but in terms of holidays and observances it totally destroys the spirit…

Surprise Surprise

Today’s GDP report was better than others expected.  I say others because we’ve been pounding the table on the economy for months.  And guess what?  It’s going to keep getting better for the next few months.  We’ve been prepared for better than expected economic releases.  I gave a speech yesterday and said that today’s report of GDP would be important.

The GDP growth rate came out at 3.5%, better than the estimates.  The stock market responded with some impressive gains a few hours after the report.  By the time this recovery runs its course, we could see this number reach 5%.  It’s not uncommon to get a better than expected recovery because you had a worse than expected contraction.  As opposed to a lot of the reports that don’t mean much, this one is important as it pertains to stock prices.  You can see below, as GDP growth rate goes (in red), so goes the stock market (S&P 500 in blue).

I described the wall of worry a few weeks ago that is continuing as I type.  I’m reading  a lot of commentary from people suggesting that this is a backward looking number and doesn’t mean much.  It may be a lagging indicator but it certainly is correlated with stock prices.  That’s all we care about.  The doubters of this good report obviously haven’t done their homework.  Luckily, we have.

The Oil Industry And Its Effect On Global Politics. By James Stafford

Via: Atlantic Free Press.

Over the past century, modern society has developed a near unquenchable thirst for oil and after 100 years of searching and experimenting there is still no reliable replacement.

“Oil is Power!” I don’t just mean power as in “energy,” I mean power, as in being a primary factor in the process of asserting and maintaining political dominance and control. Oil is needed to grow food, build infrastructure, advance technology, manufacture goods and transport them to market. It lubricates the mechanisms of both national and international politics. Those who can consistently get their hands on the most oil, at the best prices … will rule!

So what makes oil so highly valuable that individuals, companies and sovereign states would actually be willing to go to war, if necessary, in order to defend or fight to win their “beloved?”

First, “Oil is Universal!” It is a staple of our very existence! Oil plays a major role in practically every aspect of our lives from technology and transportation to the very food and business necessary for our survival.

Second, “Oil is Unique!” While there may be various alternative energy supplies available for some industrial tasks such as creating electricity, there is currently no reasonable substitute for oil when it comes to transportation.

Third, “Oil is Rare!” According to scientific calculations, oil is a progressively depleting fuel that is disappearing at an exponentially alarming rate. While there are still an undetermined number of rich, untapped oil deposits left to be discovered around the globe, reasonable arguments will continue as to just how quickly the world’s oil supply might run out.

However, even amongst the most optimistic and pessimistic prognosticators, there is virtually no debate that there is currently less oil available to us than there was just 50 years ago. //

As recently as the year 1900, coal accounted for 55% of the entire world’s energy use while oil and natural gas contributed a mere 3% of the world’s energy. One century later, coal provided only 25% of the planet’s energy, natural gas has risen to 23% and oil reigns supreme at just under 40%.

Back in the year 2000, demand for oil was approximately 75 million barrels per day! Less than ten years later, the IEA (International Energy Agency) now calculates that our global thirst for oil with actually “DOUBLE” by the year 2030.

Planes, trains and automobiles, they all rely on oil. Whether it’s driving the kids to school, hauling necessary foodstuff and commodities to market or powering a warship, tank, missile launcher or jet fighter in and out of battle zones, those who have oil prosper and those who don’t … collapse!”

So there is no surprise just how much international, geo-political concern and conflict arise regarding oil and the companies that supply it around the globe. Over the years we’ve witnessed numerous rows being raised on the international scene, some merely escalating into confrontations quelled by “quid pro quo” agreements while others have led to boycotts, United Nations censures and in some cases invasions and all out wars!

Throughout history, there have been numerous, seriously contentious conflicts about oil involving the United States, Russia, The Former Soviet Union (particularly The Ukraine), Turkey, Britain, Germany, Norway, The Netherlands, France, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Iraq, Mexico, Venezuela, Indonesia, Nigeria, Algeria and Libya, just to name a very few of the many sovereign principalities and geographical locations that have found reason to “come to odds” and on occasion, “to arms,” over oil.

Many of the most prosperous countries also tend to be those countries who have made “arrangements” to consistently receive large supplies of life giving oil, at reasonably low prices, for an extended period of time. These entities that “HAVE” quite naturally don’t want to go without and will often be willing to use whatever political might they find necessary to protect their position of prominence.

On the other side of the coin, higher oil prices have also served to bring greater political stability and prosperity to several regions around the planet. Some of these locations, including Mexico, Columbia, Venezuela, China, India, several of the Persian Gulf States, Russia, as well as many former Soviet Central Asian Republics and portions of the continent of Africa, particularly Nigeria are just getting their first tastes of “the good life” and are quickly developing a strong liking to the flavor.

For some countries, higher oil prices mean finally having the money needed to invest in desperately outdated infrastructure, technology and means to successfully building a sustainable defense and military that protects the borders and sovereignty of the nation, eliminating many incursions, invasions and all out turf wars before they can ever get started. People who feel safe tend to prefer the sweet fruit of peace!

The old axiom has never been more true” “As flows the oil, so flows prosperity.” Everything from a countries economy and currency exchange rate to their population’s over-all sense of security and political stability seem to hinge precariously on what has come to be known as “Black Liquid Gold!”
The very political success or failure of any ruling regime and the very survival of its citizens is dramatically affected, not simply by the mere possession of oil, but by effectively controlling the price of this all important fuel.

One thing that nearly all governments seem to agree upon is the importance of maintaining stability in both the market and ability of oil to reach those energy thirsty nations that it serves.
Meanwhile, there are strong proponents of various political agendas hoping to alter the landscape of various regions, whether they are agents of Democracy, throwbacks to the days of Socialism and Communism or an ever expanding “Universal Industrialism’ that crosses all borders and nationalities.

No one can possibly know for sure what the future holds, but one thing is absolutely for certain. For the next 50 to 100 years, oil will continue to play a major role in determining the geopolitical make-up of this planet. Whether the international game being played is based on economics as in “Monopoly” or world domination by way of military prowess, such as in “Risk,” the one common factor will be the oil that lubricates the wheels of progress toward prosperity and political power!

Almost a sequel to the last post?

Technorati Tags: financial crisis,Market,Regulations

A very good video from Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) is linked below, depicting what had happened with the so called “free market” (if you believe that is the free market), or more precisely the free “ derivative market”. A long one but worth your time.

 

"We didn’t truly know the dangers of the market, because it was a dark market," says Brooksley Born, the head of an obscure federal regulatory agency — the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC] — who not only warned of the potential for economic meltdown in the late 1990s, but also tried to convince the country’s key economic powerbrokers to take actions that could have helped avert the crisis. "They were totally opposed to it," Born says. "That puzzled me. What was it that was in this market that had to be hidden?" 

How Microloans Change the Lives of Millions. BY Ron Capps

Via: Foreign Policy.

A recent op-ed in the Boston Globe argues that microlending “doesn’t actually do much to fight poverty” and that it may be time to “think macro rather than micro.” Maybe the hype surrounding microcredit as a panacea for everything from poverty to discrimination is undeserved. But debunking the whole bottom-up, micro approach on the basis of two unpublished papers is not just premature, but dangerous. Macro, trickle-down development policies have rather effectively kept billions of people poor for decades. In comparison, the microfinance field is young, evolving, and ripe with innovation. Lending to the poor is just one facet of microfinance. And helping the poor save, before or along with providing credit, might be the missing piece to help solve the poverty puzzle.

Some argue that it is naive or even cruel to suggest that the poor should save. How can people living in destitution be asked to set money aside? It turns out that even very poor people can and do save if provided with the right opportunities. After two decades of providing microloans to the poor, Bangladesh’s Nobel-winning Grameen Bank, for instance, started offering savings products to its clients in 1998. Just seven years later, Grameen’s clients started saving more than they borrowed — around $460 million.

Although most banks aren’t interested in handling small nest eggs, poor people desperately need a safe way to save. Small-scale farmers, for example, often need to stretch out three months of income over an entire year. “During the time between harvests, my family still has needs, and we utilize everything we have in order to survive until the next harvest,” explains Benito Ojeda Juárez. He and his family participate in a program set up one year ago by the World Council of Credit Unions, MatchSavings.org. It gives people in rural Mexico the opportunity to save for things like home improvements, business investment, health care, and education.

Such programs, which are becoming more common around the world, also provide a wonderful vehicle for charitably minded people who want to help the poor help themselves. MatchSavings.org provides a forum for potential donors to read participants’ stories and choose a goal to support. This makes it possible for new savers, after making six monthly deposits to their account, to receive a matching donation. Juárez hopes that building his savings will prevent him from going deeper into debt. Maria Alejo, another participant of the program, used her matched amount on a long overdue visit to the dentist.

These people never had access to such financial services before. There is a credit union in their village, but neither Juárez nor Alejo could afford its membership fee. Now, with the MatchSavings program, they can build enough capital to join the credit union, allowing them to keep their savings accounts and gain access to microloans.

Such programs are also popping up — and thriving — in Africa and Asia. In Uganda, Stanbic (a large African banking company) partnered with the start-up Assets Africa to create a mobile bank for young women in rural areas. Each week, a van travels from village to village, taking deposits. Local committees help by selecting participants and coordinating with Assets Africa to make sure the program runs smoothly. Similarly, Oxfam’s Saving for Change helps members save small amounts and pool them into a common fund, which disburses loans for various needs and investments. Initiated only four years ago, the program now reaches 250,000 in villages across Africa and Asia. Building a reserve of savings empowers the groups to make investments and have access to formal credit. Thus, creative microfinance programs clearly have the capacity to fill in gaps the financial world has not, despite what the Globe op-ed says.

Another issue raised in the op-ed is that of aggregation. “Forty workers at a textile plant are going to be much more productive than 40 microentrepreneur weavers each working by themselves,” the Globe op-ed says. It argues against microlending because it says that dealing with thousands of microsavers and microentrepreneurs is time-consuming and costly.

But many microlending institutions can aggregate workers and savers, beneficially and efficiently. Take, for instance, the large-scale, grass-roots savings project in Andhra Pradesh, India, the “Indira Kranthi Patham.” The project aids poor female farmers who have no access to the formal banking infrastructure and are geographically dispersed. When distressed and in need of cash, these farmers sometimes have to sell their produce to middlemen or, worst of all, make emergency sales at a loss. The project helps them collectivize: Neighbors form local savings groups, which become part of village groups, which form larger district groups. At each level, the program helps participants save money and access microloans. Further, private players can negotiate at the district or village level to buy produce from the previously dispersed poor farmers. Thus far, the program has helped nearly 9 million women, who have seen their incomes rise at double the regional rate. There’s nothing micro about that.

Another benefit of savings-led programs is psychological — a point unnoted in the Globe. Savers don’t just acquire capital. They experience what Michael Sherraden, a professor at Washington University in St. Louis, terms “asset effects.” These include a greater sense of control over their lives and a more positive attitude toward the future. A participant of the MatchSavings program, Gloria Gomez Lauriano, points out, “I was saving to fix my house and make a better living. It’s good to save so you can move forward.” Many savers in the program felt that even after the program ended they would continue their habit of saving every month to help build a more secure future.

Recently, the Gates Foundation announced a $35 million grant for designing and delivering new savings products for the poor across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. This is welcome news. There are many more ideas to choose from, fitted to different local economic and political conditions. Good old-fashioned thrift, it turns out, can be married to 21st-century technologies like mobile banking and Web-based fundraising to provide a powerful engine of self-help to the world.

So, let’s not be so dismissive of micro, and let’s give up the idea of going back to the old days of thinking only at the macro level. A million people here, and a million there, and pretty soon thinking small can have a very big impact indeed.

Israel to revise economic forecasts upwards

Haim Shani, the new Director General of Israel’s Ministry of Finance, is a very lucky man. He comes in to the job, as the worst of the global recession is safely in the past. The country faces no immediate elections which tend to destabilise the economy. A budget for 18 months has been secured.

Best of all, Shani replaces Yoram Ariav, who leaves behind a well-run ship.  So, what is there to look forward to?

Shani is a successful CEO of one of Israel’ leading hightech giants, NICE. He is set to release new growth predictions for the year 2010, which will be revised upwards towards the 3% mark. The previous forecast was about half of that. This means a significant shrinking in the expected public deficit, and so to an easier monetary regime.

As a side note, amny ministers will try to claw back the cuts in the budgets as tax collection has started to rise again.

It will be interesting to see how the Bank of Israel reacts to the positive trends. Its main concern is future inflation. The annual target is 2.0%, although the current rate is close to 3.5%.

Stanley Fisher, the  bank’s governor, is known to be encouraging other international financiers to follow his lead, as he has already raised interest rates.  More of the same is expected. It is a question of how much and when.

Asian leaders rival visions for economic blocs

HUA HIN, Thailand (AFP) – Asian leaders heard competing plans from Australia and Japan for a massive EU-style economic and political bloc as they wrapped up an annual summit in Thailand on Sunday.

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd presented his counterparts with his grand vision for an Asia-Pacific Community, possibly by 2020, in a bid to boost the region's global influence.

Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is also going to push his rival plan for an East Asian community, a day after saying the region that is home to more than half of the Earth's population should aim to "lead the world."

Leaders in the Thai resort of Hua Hin were also due to sign agreements Sunday on boosting integration after the global recession and cooperating on subjects including climate change and disaster management.

The summit grouping the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand has been dominated by discussions on greater unity.

But it has also been marred by controversy over human rights — especially in military-ruled Myanmar — bitter border disputes and signs of apathy over a meeting that was twice delayed by protests.

Rudd said he would address leaders on his plans over a working lunch.

"What I detect across the region is an openness to a discussion about how we evolve our regional architecture into the future," Rudd told reporters, according to the AAP news agency.

"I have not set an urgent timeline on this, I have in fact suggested a timeline of 2020."

Hatoyama would address the same lunch on his East Asian plan and suggest that "through building up regional cooperation in many sectors we will be able to steadily reach a common understanding," a Japan delegation spokesman said.

Japan has said that the bloc would include the 16 members at the summit but there has been debate over a role for the United States. Rudd did not spell out the membership for his proposed bloc.

ASEAN leaders are also set to restate their commitment to creating their own political and economic community by 2015.

The Australian and Japanese plans would be built on a series of free-trade pacts in place between ASEAN and its trading partners. Officials said there would soon be a feasibility study on a pact between ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea.

Meanwhile, renewed criticism over the region's stance on human rights has taken the shine off the summit.

The launch Friday of what ASEAN said was a "historic" rights commission was overshadowed by the barring of several leading campaigners from a meeting with the region's leaders to discuss the new body.

Activists also slammed ASEAN for failing to press for the release of detained democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, although the leaders called for Myanmar's elections next year to be free and fair.

Myanmar's Prime Minister Thein Sein told his counterparts that the regime could relax the conditions of her house arrest, which was extended by 18 months in August.

Divisions between key member-states also undermined the supposed theme of unity.

Host nation Thailand and neighbouring Cambodia remained at loggerheads over the fate of fugitive former Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra, after Cambodian premier Hun Sen offered him a job as his economic adviser.

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao agreed with his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh during talks on the summit's sidelines Saturday to work towards narrowing differences on a long-simmering dispute over the Indian border state of Arunachal Pradesh, Chinese state media reported. Related article: Australia, China hold talks on Rio Tinto detained executive

Around 18,000 troops and dozens of armoured vehicles have been deployed in Hua Hin after the Asian summit was twice postponed by anti-government protests led by supporters of the exiled Thaksin.

Asian leaders’ rival visions for economic blocs

How Much Juice is Left in this Bear Market Rally?

By Bill Bonner

Since it peaked in 2007, the UK stock market lost 60% of its value. As of yesterday, it had recovered half of what it had lost.

All over the world, the story is about the same. Markets have recovered half or more of what they gave up.

The US is a laggard. While the S&P is up 60%, the Dow isn’t yet at the halfway point. Some foreign markets, meanwhile, have 100% + gains.

Fund managers who missed the rally are kicking themselves. They’ve failed to keep up with the benchmarks.

Even before the market headed up in March we echoed Richard Russell’s words: “One of the surest phenomena in the financial world is the bear market bounce,” he said. We also guessed that the bounce would go to about half the previous losses. We based that on what had happened after the Crash of ’29.

Well, we’re still not there. But an analyst from Morgan Stanley tells us that markets tend to do better than that. The typical bounce is about 70%, says he.

Whew! That’s a pretty serious bounce. If we’d known it was going to be that big we would have encouraged dear readers to bet on it. Instead, we judged it a dangerous countercurrent…like a back eddy or rip tide. Yes, it can take you places…but not necessarily where you want to go!

Our outlook here at The Daily Reckoning is very long term. We don’t like betting on countercurrents…even important ones. Instead, we like to go with the flow…and keep going with it until it arrives at its end.

That’s not as easy as it sounds.

In 1999, it looked like the bull market had come to an end. We thought so. We told readers to get out of stocks…and stay out. Gold was a better place to be.

Investors made nothing in stocks for the next 10 years. In real terms, the stock market decline began in January 2000. Prices went down. They bounced…such a big bounce that it looked like a genuine new bull market. But after inflation, there wasn’t much left. Adjust for purchasing power and investors were worse off every year. Even now, after a 7-month bounce and a 45% gain, Dow investors are still down 30% to 40% from the highs set in 1999.

Dave Rosenberg…

“The only thing we really learned in this extremely flashy, seven-month, 60%, nine-point multiple expansion-led rally, is that momentum investing never did become extinguished this cycle. It is really a fascinating commentary on human behavior that so many ‘investors’ are lamenting about how ‘the train has left the station’ without them. Please, give us a giant break! The train has left the station countless of times in the last 10 years but obviously none of these trips lasted very long because the reality is that equities have failed to generate any positive return over this time interval.

“As for the here and now, there is another reality. Price gains in the stock market have generally occurred with low volume. There are limited buyers – hedge funds and flash traders – but no sellers (not yet, anyway). And, we saw in yesterday’s decline that volume climbed across the board, and the number of high-volume selloffs is a major red flag that should not be ignored.”

The typical major bear market lasts 15-20 years. The last one began in 1966. It wasn’t until 1982 – 16 years later – that the next major bull trend began.

This bear market is already 10 years old. Perhaps it will end in 2015. Maybe in 2020. We don’t know when. We only know how it will end – in misery.

Now, despite 10 years of stinkin’ returns, investors still believe in stocks. They still hope to find the ‘next Google.’ They still punish fund managers who hold back. They still read the financial press. They still watch CNBC. They still want to know what stock to buy.

Yesterday, they bid up the Dow 131 points. The price of stocks to gold is about 10 to 1. When this trend began ten years ago, we predicted that the Dow and gold would go all the way to 1 for 1. We guessed it would happen at the 3,000 to 5,000 level. We’ll stick with that prediction until it proves correct…or it makes us look like a fool.

Government debt? No problem. The net interest paid by the US government is actually about the same – as a percentage of GDP – as it was 40 years ago. It’s only 1.3% of output – nothing to worry about.

But wait…what’s this? The average maturity of that debt has come down from more than 5 years to only 4. And according to the Office of management and Budget, if the US continues on its present course, net interest will rise to 5% of GDP in 2019 and 10% in 2034.

And that assumes there is no big increase in interest rates…and that the economy recovers as planned. If either of those things fails to happen, the situation will degrade fast.

Imagine if the government were forced to refinance debt at double-digit interest rates – as it was in the late ’70s. Net interest could go to 5% of GDP within months.

We’re in a depression, not a recession. Depressions take longer to sort out. But they are also far more treacherous. Because there are always periods when things seem to be going “back to normal,” only to go back down again as soon as investors turn bullish.

Richard Koo, author of The Balance Sheet Recovery, recalls how it was during Japan’s long, dark passage:

“We had these false starts… The economy would begin to improve and then we’d say ‘oh my god, the budget deficit is too large.’ Then we’d cut fiscal stimulus and collapse again. We went through this zigzag for 15 years.”

Koo understands what is going on, more or less. Companies and households are paying off debt. He and Paul Krugman believe the feds have to continue pumping money into the system or they’re going to have a “lost decade,” just like the Japanese.

You have to keep the stimulus money flowing “until the private sector de-leveraging is over,” he says.

By our calculations, it will take 5-10 years for the private sector to de-leverage. By that time, the feds will have added trillions in debt to public finances. Since they can’t finance that much from private domestic savings, and since foreigners will be wary about lending that much even if they had it, the Fed itself will have to pony up the money. This will put the dollar in further danger…along with the entire global financial system.

Koo may be right – as far as his thinking takes him. He should think a little further. The problem is debt. Too much debt in the private sector caused bear markets and a bank crisis. Too much debt in the public sector will cause big problems too – a default…and hyperinflation. Worse than a depression.

How Much Juice is Left in this Bear Market Rally? was originally published in the Daily Reckoning on 23/10/2009.

Iran outsmarts Western Intelligence

Iran outsmarts Western Intelligence;

The inevitable Northern Middle East strategic block 

            This week the south eastern region of Iran witnessed a terrorist attack that decapitated the military leadership of the paramilitary Pasdaran or Guardian of the Islamic Revolution.  Iran is blaming Pakistan to facilitating the movements of the Sunni “Jund Allah” with full backing and finance from Britain and the USA. Personally, I tend to see indirect coordination of the Iranian regime in that attack: Iran captured several birds in one shot.  First, Iran was closely following this terrorist attack in the planning phase and let it pass: The regime intended to decapitate the paramilitary organization as a the first step into disbanding an organization that is no longer the guardian of the revolution but the military backer of the retrograded clerics working on maintaining their hold on the political climate in Iran.  Second, Iran had firm proofs of the US and Britain connections and could use them to blackmail powers harassing it on its nuclear program that is still conform to the Geneva convention; it seems that a comprehensive alternative for the enrichment of Iranian uranium has been reached and relatively quickly.  Third, Pakistan is no longer in a position to antagonize Iran on its south-western front now that Pakistan is entirely fighting the Taliban style Pakistani movement on its north west region; Pakistan is now fully cooperating with Iran in terrorist activities meant to destabilize both countries.  This is not the first time that Iran decapitates leaders of movements whose program contravene with the general trend of the Islamic revolution.

            There would be much turmoil within the next three years in the “Greater Middle East” region.  There is this inevitable trend toward forming a strategic and economic bloc in the northern Middle East region of Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Iraq.   Turkey and Iran are the main regional powers with the means to drive this trend to fruition.  Saudi Arabia is in line to supporting this bloc which will secure to the monarchy a new lease on life and not relying exclusively on the US Administrations for its existence.  To prevent this new emerging bloc many superpowers are in a frenzy to obstruct this natural trend in economic and financial stability. 

            Another example is the terrorist blasting of a couple of ministries in downtown Baghdad.  This attack followed the signing of full diplomatic relation with Syria at the instigation of the US and France.  In retaliation of Syria cozying up with Maliki PM of Iraq without Iran’s full consent a prompt response sent the appropriate signal; Maliki quickly broke diplomatic ties with Damascus under lame excuses.  Syria got the message clear and loud not to cooperate with France, the US, or any regional power without prior coordination with Iran.  Syria is not about to ruin its internal security for any baits extended to it by the Western powers.

            The Arab Emirates are under pressures to kick out all Islamic Chiaa immigrants, starting with the Lebanese.  Israel is constantly pressuring the US to get militarily involved in Iran. Turkey is in excellent terms with Syria and Iran: it has canceled an air exercise with Israel and the US that was intended to cross the borders of Syria, Turkey, and Iraq; it is an exercise for Israel to take this alternative air route to blast Iran’s nuclear power stations.  Lebanon is unable to form a government for 4 months; it is waiting for green light of the new strategic block that is now backed by Saudi Arabia.  The US, Israel, and Egypt are counter blocking any unity government in Lebanon.

            The trend toward forming a strategic and economic bloc in the northern Middle East region started in 1979 as the Islamic revolution in Iran came to power and the Shah went to exile (Only Sadate of Egypt accepted the Shah to take political refuge in its land). Thus, the first clue goes back to 1979.  Iran of Khomeini, Syria of Hafez Assad, and President Bakr of Iraq decided on a rapprochement of Islamic sects (Sunni and Chiaa).  Saddam Hussein was chief of security and Vice President of Bakr; Saddam hated the Chiaa as well as Hafez Assad his archenemy to the leadership of the Baath Party.  At the instigation of Saudi Arabia and the green light from the USA Saddam deposed Bakr and swiftly executed all the Iraqi Baath members who supported this entente; these prominent members of the Iraqi Baath were mostly Chiaa. At the time the Saudi Defense Minister Sultan and the Interior Nayef (Sultan’s cadet brother) hated the Chiaa and were worried for their obscurantist and salafist Wahhabit Sunni sect. Thus, Saddam and the Saudi monarchs joined forces to destabilize Iran of Khomeini.  Many regional States, the US, France, and Britain would not allow a strategic and economical block in the Middle East to be formed of Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria. Thus, Saddam was encouraged to invade Iran. After two years, Saddam had to retreat his troops from Khuzestan.  Iran wanted this war of attrition to resume as an excuse to clean and re-structure its Islamic regime; (this nonsense war lasted 8 years).   

            The second clue is after invaded Kuwait in 1990.  Saddam’s regime was publicly terribly weakened; the Chiaa in southern Iraq and the Kurds in the north were threatening to destabilize Saddam’s regime.  The US wanted to help Saddam by any means to prevent Iran from taking hold of Iraq and joining forces with Syria (Iran’s ally).  The short-term strategy was to give Saddam an external activity or a semblance of war to re-unite Iraq on a national excuse.  To that effect, the US lured Kuwait to pressure Iraq into refunding 50 billions in war loan.  Saddam amassed his troops on the borders with Kuwait. The unstable Saddam wanted to believe that he got effective green light to conquer Kuwait. Bush Senior formed a coalition and forced Saddam to retreat from Kuwait. Saddam was defeated and the US and coalition forces could easily enter Baghdad. The purpose of this war was not to depose Saddam but for Iraq to be a buffer zone between Iran and Syria.  Saddam was permitted to crush the Chiaa insurgency in the south and the Kurdish upheaval in the north. Turkey strengthened its relationship with Syria and Iran. Syria was given bait for a mandate over Lebanon. Moubarak of Egypt was ordered to accept the deal and help put an end to the civil war in Lebanon. These hot regions needed to be pacified while the US and Europe tends to bigger problems: the proper dismantling of the Soviet Union, stabilizing Europe, and overseeing the financial globalization.

            The third clue is the massive occupation of Iraq by the US troops in 2003. (Read my post “Why the massive occupation of Iraq?”).  After 9/11/2001, the US demoted the Taliban regime in Afghanistan but did nothing to finish off the job and stabilize Afghanistan: the US Administration had other strategic plan than worrying about Sunni salafist Al Qaeda “terrorism”: it was contained in northern Pakistan.   

            At the time of the invasion there was no nuclear program in Iraq and the Bush Junior Administration knew that fact.  Iraq had resumed the development of two other means of mass destruction: the biological and the chemical arms. Saddam Hussein prevented any further inspections by the UN for two years because he had these two arms programs functional.  Thus, the US employed Russia and France to misinform Saddam: Russia would displace and decontaminate the presence of the biological and chemical arms that it had supplied Iraq in return for vetoing any pre-emptive attack by the US in the UN.  This maneuver was effective and the inspectors found no arms of mass destructions in Iraq. It was when the US was totally confident that Saddam had no arms of mass destructions that it invaded Iraq; Saddam had nothing to counter the massive offensive of the US forces, especially that the officers in the field of the Iraqi army had no power but to wait orders from central commands:  that was how Saddam restructured his army since 1980 to prevent any army rebellion to his regime.

            Why the US had to completely occupy Iraq?  Saddam could have been deposed in many ways without any military invasion or at least a partial occupation of south Iraq with Chiaa majority and the north with Kurdish majority. Why the US did not invest one more year in Afghanistan to stabilize this country before turning on to Iraq?  Why the US failed to get out after Saddam his entourage were finished?  Why this occupying force is still there after seven years of the invasion?  The US wanted its physical presence in Iraq to prevent the formation of the Northern Middle East Block. Turkey was against this invasion and did its best to prevent the US troops crossing its territory to northern Iraq.  Syria and Iran played cats and mouse with the US to harass its presence in Iraq.

            Thus, deposing Saddam without US military presence in the field meant that Iraq will quickly link with Iran; the other bonus was to control oil production and distribution of the second largest oil reserve to put the squeeze on the giant economic power of China. This “pre-emptive” intervention didn’t turn right: first, radical Islam increased and proliferated even further; second, it was the catalyst for the severest financial crash ever, and it alienated Turkey. 

            What are the scores at this junction?  The Saudi Arabia click of (Sultan, Nayef, and Bandar) is deposed and Saudi Arabia is seeking stronger ties with Syria.  Turkey is increasingly improving its ties with Syria and de-linking with its former “strategic” ally Israel. Iran is recapturing its initial strategy of uniting the Islamic sects.  Pakistan will cooperate fully with Iran to stabilize Afghanistan and save the unstable State of Pakistan deeply involved militarily to crush the Taliban brand in northern Pakistan. Thus, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Armenia are changing their policies to join this bloc as allies if not partners.

            The trend is already inevitable and it cannot be stopped with the world economy and finance state in such disarray.  It is the movement of political leadership in the four States that is the driving force and not simply individual leaders. By the end of 2011 the US is to remove all its military troops from Iraq. During this period, the US, Russia, France, and Britain will coordinate efforts to keeping Turkey and Iran on tip tow; Syria and Iraq are to be frequently destabilized.

Seller Optimism Causing Price Climb

From the desk of Ken Bryant at Lake Chatuge on the state line between Hiawassee, GA and Hayesville, NC

Daily Real Estate News  |  October 12, 2009  |    Excerpted

Despite the recent market decline, Americans are still willing to borrow a large amount of money to buy a home because they are convinced that housing values will rise, writes Robert J. Shiller in his monthly New York Times column.

Shiller, professor of economics and finance at Yale University and cofounder and chief economist of MacroMarkets, examined survey data that asked home buyers in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Milwaukee, and Boston a variety of questions, including how much they believe the value of their homes will change in the next year.

The average answer among the 311 people surveyed was an increase of 11.2 percent. The media response was 5 percent, which Shiller also believes is high.

Such upbeat answers about the housing market led Shiller to conclude that home buyers think the decline in home prices is over and now is the time to buy. Their optimism, Shiller says, has caused an upturn in prices.

Source: The New York Times, Robert J. Shiller (10/11/2009)

Out of recession ? So what ?

The government released official data that India is poised to grow at 6.5% in FY 2010. The IIM’s are happy because the hiring seems to be back on track. There are reports filing the pages of newspapers that the business outlook is looking ‘up’ once again and that the world has seen the worst. Everything is filled with hope and assurance that we would live to see better things. But the question is why do we need so much assurance from the media and our general environment to live and do business ? There is so much hope anyways. The world is filled with opportunities. There are infinite systems that need to be improved; infinite markets that need to be tapped; infinite goods that need to be created and distributed.

For once, lets throw caution to the winds and start taking decisions without the bias of external factors. It is not necessary for the outlook to be good to grow / start your business. The best businesses have weathered the worst of economic storms. Should I invest in China and India simply because they are the fastest growing economies ? What if my business culture does not tune with Chinese culture ? There are so many things apart from the macroeconomic figures and data that need to be assessed before taking decisions. Inspite of a flat growth rate, USA might be the best place to be doing business in the world. Business decisions are taken on gut and judgment rather than FDI and GDP figures.

The media is good in two things; 1. give assurances, 2. give scares (I am sure swine flu must still be spreading like wild fire). Everything else we wouldn’t care to read. So I urge people to get hold of their life’s decisions and live without the support of external factors, assurances, media and the economic recession. So what if we are out of recession ? We still need to work hard, be intense and passionate about our ideas, products and services to succeed.

WHEN WILL RECESSION END?

COLLEGE STATION (Real Estate Center) – Three things have to happen before the current recession can be declared ended. One is underway, said Dr. Mark Dotzour, chief economist for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

“I think the economy will begin to turn for the better once the health care and cap-and-trade issues are settled. Those two political debates are creating substantial uncertainty for business owners and investors,” he said.

The personal savings rate is the second trend to watch, said Dotzour.

“Over 70 percent of the U.S. economy is consumer spending,” he said. “When the savings rate finally levels out, consumer spending will start to increase again.”

Increased corporate profits are the third trend that must occur to bring the recession to an end. There is some indication that has already begun. The last three data points were all up. Rising profits lessen the urge for companies to lay off workers.

Research Economist Dr. Jim Gaines added that the increased corporate profits have come from reduced costs, not the kind that leads to expansion.

“Keep your eye on these three issues,” Dotzour said. “When they are resolved, the economy will begin to turn the corner.”

 

For more information on building, buying, selling or leasing commercial or residential property anywhere in the world, contact Nicole Tucker, licensed agent with Keller Williams, Dallas Preston Road office at 972-992-8204 or visit my website at http://www.NicoleRE.com.
Nicole Tucker ~ Making Real Estate Real Easy!

Do as I say, not as I do

Maria Shriver’s cell phone negligence caught by paparazzi is the most current example of people in authoritative positions telling the American public to do as I say, not as I do.  I don’t know how it is they expect us to rise to the occasion and make big changes when they themselves fail to be able to make the simple ones. The cell phone rant has been on my mind for quite some time, so I have to address that first.

Ban on cell phone use while driving in California. I don’t understand why this is such an issue. You don’t need an expensive hands free device to be, well, hands free. Practically every mobile phone comes with ear phones that can be used for driving. You can glue the phone to your head anytime you’re out of the car. For the precious minutes you are in, these babies work just fine. They may not look as cool but hey, you already paid for them and they’re easy to use. Just pop them in your ears. See, you just saved yourself some precious time searching for the words “how to” and “use hands free.” I can’t tell you how many times I find myself motioning to drivers to hang up the phone while driving and I am sure they feel I am some random commuter with body tourettes (best seen in Crank 2, which if you haven’t checked out yet, is well, random goodness).  But seriously, I am done with near run-ins, tailgating, and general bad driving from folks behind the wheel who refuse to get off of their god damn phones.  So, I say Mr. Governor, until you can get your wife under control, I hardly think millions of drivers are going to make a move. Enforce the laws and show people you’re serious.

Faith in the financial services industry. It’s been a rough couple of years on American pocketbooks, to put it mildly. Millions have seen their retirement accounts decimated, with dreams of retiring from the workforce thrown out the window. We faced a potential collapse of our auto industry, which is still precarious, at best, and continue to face the highest unemployment rates since the Great Depression. We also faced the collapse of the financial bubble created by mortgage industry greed that’s been building over the past ten years, not to mention the scheming of people like Bernie Madoff and just last week, Raj Rajaratnam. Throughout these troubling economic times, we’re told that our money is safe and the best way to help the country get back on its feet is by buying and investing. We’re also told to do more with less. But I ask you – 1) how can we have faith that our money is safe when the people that we entrust it to are sharks and schemers? And 2) how is it we can stomach the message do more with less, when banks like Goldman Sachs, who don’t forget were part of the bank bailout, are paying each of their  31,700 a salary of $700,000 per year. What does less mean to them vs. the school bus driver, teacher or nurse in Anytown USA.

Healthy homes. Obesity rates continue to climb in the US. In fact, a new report says the number of obese and overweight children has climbed to 30 percent in 30 states. And cancer rates continue to climb. From lung to breast to ovarian, we’re seeing rates among young and old skyrocket. But how can we eat better when it’s hard for families to get the information and tips they need to shop healthy/organic on a budget? And how can we encourage people to put the cancer stick down when even our own President can’t?

Love knows no color. With the election of President Obama, the first black president of the United States, people here and around the world felt that change had finally come in the US. While we’re sadly behind the times (as evidenced by the variety of shapes and sizes, sex and colors of the heads of state at the G8 Summit) it really did feel that as a nation we were beginning to turn the Titanic around. But oh for every step forward, we take about five back. Our most recent re-tread – an interracial couple in Louisiana that was denied a marriage license by a Justice of the Peace.  How can we teach ourselves, our children, their children, to be accepting of others when officers of the court can’t see past their own bigotry and hate.

The hypocrisy never ends. It’s frustrating. And I know, I know, many of you are probably saying it’s always been this way and where have I been. But seriously, sometimes adages like “do as I say, not as I do,” really do make sense. Someone had to come up with them. How about we make better attempt of trying to use it?

The Reality Moment-US Economy.

US economy has been built on spending beyond means at the individual level.Normally people save for the future; in US people spend for the future;they pile debts in anticipation of income.Prudence calls for savings, not increase in wants.Why blame the Government?It is National Character.Unless people in US start spending on essentilas,reduce consumerism, stop collecting junk as possessions,stop using plastic money,they can be sure that the worse is yet to come.

Story.
‘That which can’t continue doesn’t. A nation can spend and spend, pile debt upon debt, but eventually there comes a reality moment when some leader emerges to say enough is enough and when decent people, looking around at themselves and their own best nature, respond by demanding a return to responsibility’.-NYT 16 Oct
2009.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/16/opinion/16brooks.html?bl

Websites to cost users by 2010

Websites to cost users by 2010; (October 18, 2009)

 

            The search for an economic model to generate profit is driving many web developers to charging users for information gathering. It seems that publicity is no longer generating enough resources for the printed media. In 1998, 48% of the US readers got their information from papers versus 13% on the web. Ten years later, 37 % use the web versus 34% paper journals and dailies. 

            The successes of iTunes Stores and Amazon is for selling digital music on the Web are encouraging movie and written press businesses to testing paying diffusion modes.  Two years ago, selling music records on the web amounted to 20% of the music market. In 2008, 1.4 billion records were sold on the web; by 2010 this mode of selling will far surpassing the physical CD sales. Last FM, Yes FM, and Spotify are revolutionizing the market and making “streaming” the preferred option for consumers; the paying option does not contain advertisement.  Virgin Media is offering a new legal telecharging “for the price of two CDs you may have access to the entire music catalogue.”

            Daniel Ek, founder of Spotify proclaimed that “the consumer doesn’t give a damn of owning or telecharging CD; what he wants is to be able to have access.”  The networks for sharing files via Torrent and eMule, the “streaming”, or direct telecharging sites such as Rapidshare and Megaupload have doubled business for the second year in a raw.

            Browsing cultural, editorials, and special investigative pieces in dailies will no longer be free. The New York Times got on the web in 2005 and charged its subscribers; it backed off two years later and is now reconsidering payment. Google is receiving advertising benefits through Adsense and Adwords to Google News; the information associations are charging Google to benefit from the labor of other journalists without their consent.  Google is studying a formula and it presented it to Newspapers Association of America that would allow dailies to charge its Google’s users for articles read.

            Louis Gordon Crovitz, co-founder of Journalism Online stated: “The future is for mix models of free and charged. Authors of numerical books will receive their dues.”  Rupert Murdoch, mogul of News Corporation which include Wall Street Journal, Times, and the Sun is leading the charge on account that “an industry that offer its product for free cannibalizes its capacity for producing good journalism.”

            The Economist is going to charge micro payments within 6 months; basically there will be two kinds of payments: Essential formula at half price of the Premiere formula where users can read the journals the night before publication.

            Paramount, Lions Gate, and Metro-Goldwyn-Myer are uniting to launch on the Epix market high definition movies in streaming mode. YouTube is negociating similar deals with the studios of Hollywood.

WH Official: Confidence in Stimulus Helps Economy; 'We Certainly Notice' That Dow's at 10K

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports:

With a new report out this week touting job creation stemming from the stimulus package, Obama administration officials have fanned out to make the case that the $787 billion measure is doing its job.

That's no accident. On ABCNews.com's “Top Line” today, Jared Bernstein, the chief economic adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, told us that perceptions of the stimulus matter.

“Sure — I mean confidence in how the economy is performing both by businesses, families, consumers always makes a difference,” Bernstein said. “But I think the critical kind of kernel of truth in there is that of course the Recovery Act is very much working. We have saved or created about a million jobs thus far.”

“The Recovery Act has clearly helped both on the overall macro-economy side but also on the jobs side. Now that doesn't mean it has offset the massive jobs deficit that greeted us when we got here — by no means. And the president's acutely aware of that. But it is helping.”

Bernstein also said that administration officials pay attention to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which hit 10,000 this week, though he cautioned that it's only one of many economic indicators of importance to the White House.

Asked if crossing the 10,000 threshold brings a “good feeling” to the White House, Bernstein responded:

“To some extent. The fact is I think the Dow has crisscrossed the 10,000 [mark] multiple times since it bottomed out back in 2007. But I think where your intuition is correct there is that we certainly notice when the market is on an upturning trend, and we appreciate that from the perspective of people who have investments.”

He continued: “Now, I'm not saying that's made up all of the losses by any stretch of the imagination. But we're very interested in the extent to which our interventions and those of the Fed have helped pull financial markets and the overall economy back from the brink. That's what's important there.”

Though Obama aides initially said that the stimulus would keep unemployment under 8 percent, it's now close to 10 percent. Bernstein and other administration officials say, however, that the job market would be much worse without the stimulus, and that the full extent of the economic crisis wasn't evident at the time they made their initial projections.

The report released this week found that 30,383 jobs have been directly created by money spent so far under the stimulus — a number Bernstein said “exceeds our expectations.” The numbers, he said, “point to the conclusion that the Recovery Act did indeed create or save about 1 million jobs in its first seven months.”

“I think you've got to put that [30,383 figure] context. Remember, this report covers $16 billion, OK? We're talking about a $787 billion package; we're talking about direct recipient reporting 30,000 private sector jobs on about 2 percent of the overall bill. And remember, it's just direct jobs — it doesn't count the indirect jobs that you get when people go out and spend that money,” Bernstein said.

“What those numbers suggest is that we are on track to do what we said we're doing through the Recovery Act, which is to help offset some of the very deep pain out there in the labor market,” he said.

Watch the full interview with Jared Bernstein, including a discussion of why the Obama administration wants to give an additional $250 to Social Security recipients this year, HERE.

We also debated the week's politics with Republican strategist Ron Bonjean and Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis.

One hot topic: Is Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev. — who launched a pair of new TV ads this week, 13 months before the election — in trouble?

Said Bonjean: “When you put up an ad this far away from the elections in 2010, it's a big signal that he's in a lot trouble. And you know frankly, the two Republican challengers right now [who] are in a primary, lead him in the polls. I think you could put a ham sandwich against Harry Reid right now and lead in the polls.”

Kofinis said Reid has to deal with the “conflicting goals” of leading Senate Democrats and seeking another Senate term, but he called it “laughable” and “ridiculous” to suggest that Reid's on the ropes.

As for the ads, “he's not going to have a problem with money, but I think it's also to basically make it less likely that the two challengers can raise money or seem as formidable,” Kofinis told us. “So it's kind of a smart thing to do. But it's a year out — I'm not going to worry about it.”

Watch the full discussion, touching on health care and the search for bipartisanship on Capitol Hill, HERE.

$1.4 Trillion Deficit Complicates Stimulus Plans

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration said Friday that the federal budget deficit for the fiscal year that just ended was $1.4 trillion, nearly a trillion dollars greater than the year before and the largest shortfall relative to the size of the economy since 1945.

The number, while lower than forecast a few months ago, underscored the challenges ahead in shrinking the deficit even as the White House and Congress are considering more steps to stimulate an economy that is making a slow recovery. The political hurdles to finding a solution were evident on Friday as each political party immediately blamed the other for the growth of the deficit.

The shortfall for the fiscal year 2009, which ended Sept. 30, translates to 10 percent of the economy, according to a joint statement from the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, and the director of the Office of Management and Budget, Peter R. Orszag. For the 2008 fiscal year, the deficit of $459 billion was 3.2 percent of the economy, as measured by the gross domestic product.

Economists generally agree that annual deficits should not exceed 3 percent of the G.D.P., and that is the level President Obama had vowed to reach by the end of his first term in 2013.

But subsequent spending and tax cuts to stimulate the economy, and lower-than-expected revenues as the recession deepened before bottoming out, combined to push the administration’s deficit forecast to 4.6 percent of G.D.P. for the fiscal year 2013.

At 10 percent of the gross domestic product, the 2009 deficit is the highest since the end of World War II, when it was 21.5 percent. At that level, it already has become a bigger economic and a political issue than any time since the late 1980s.

Investors who are essential to financing the debt, including China and other foreign interests, are eager for signs that the government will eventually regain control over its budgets.

And polls show that Americans are increasingly worried as well, raising concerns about Mr. Obama’s ambitious domestic agenda, including his signature health care overhaul, that Republicans are stoking. At the same time, many Americans are demanding further help, confronting forecasts that job losses will not peak until mid-2010.

Mr. Orszag alluded to the administration’s fiscal quandary in a statement on Friday. “As we move from rescue to recovery, the president recognizes that we need to put the nation back on a fiscally sustainable path,” he said. He said proposals to help do that would be part of Mr. Obama’s next budget early next year, for fiscal 2011.

The 2009 fiscal year began last October, just as President George W. Bush and Congress were contending with the near-collapse of the financial system and working to enact what became a $700 billion rescue plan. After Mr. Obama took office, administration officials calculated that the deficit would surpass $1.2 trillion. Mr. Geithner and Mr. Orszag recalled that forecast in their statement on Friday.

The 2009 deficit, they said, “was largely the product of the spending and tax policies inherited from the previous administration, exacerbated by a severe recession and financial crisis that were under way as the current administration took office.”

The economic recovery efforts, through the Troubled Asset Relief Program for financial institutions, known as Tarp, and the $787 billion, two-year stimulus package, accounted for just under a quarter of the deficit, they said.

The administration’s calculation of a $1.4 trillion deficit tracks an estimate last week from the Congressional Budget Office that anticipated the data from the Treasury and the Office of Management and Budget. The actual deficit was slightly lower than each had expected in August, when the White House budget office projected a $1.8 trillion deficit and the Congressional office forecast $1.6 trillion.

The decrease from the earlier projections largely reflected updated accounting, including, Mr. Geithner said, the fact that “we are managing to repair the financial system at a lower cost to taxpayers.”

The Obama administration ultimately did not need additional billions it had budgeted for the effort. Also, several major institutions repaid their bailout money with interest, and other financial companies that have not are paying interest on their borrowings.

While many financial institutions have recovered — and prospered, as this week’s eye-popping earnings reports for JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs showed — the persistent high unemployment, home foreclosure rates and credit needs of small businesses are keeping the White House and Congress focused on stimulating the economy. This adds to the deficit, rather than reduces it.

“It would be harmful to try to balance the budget at a time when the economy has not fully recovered and so many Americans are still struggling,” said Representative John M. Spratt Jr., Democrat of South Carolina and chairman of the House Budget Committee.

But on Friday, the deficit was front and center. The overall national debt, which is the accumulation of annual deficits, is nearly $12 trillion, and projected deficits for the next decade will add an estimated $9 trillion more. Administration officials say two-thirds of that is due to Bush administration policies — chiefly tax cuts, wars and the Medicare prescription drug benefit — not paid for with other savings.

“Today’s deficit announcement again highlights the fiscal mess handed to the Obama administration,” Senator Kent Conrad, Democrat of North Dakota and chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, said in a statement.

Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the Republican minority leader in the House, rejected that position. “It is irresponsible for Democrats to continue spending taxpayers’ money we don’t have to fund an agenda that would destroy the jobs we need to get our economy moving again,” Mr. Boehner said.

$1.4 Trillion Deficit Complicates Stimulus Plans

Double Slash on Ecology and Economy

Would you believe that the double slash needed for web addresses wastes millions of dollars?:

‘The double slash, though a programming convention at the time, turned out to not be really necessary, Mr. Berners-Lee explained. Look at all the paper and trees, he said, that could have been saved if people had not had to write or type out those slashes on paper over the years — not to mention the human labor and time spent typing those two keystrokes countless millions of times in browser address boxes.
(Today’s browsers, of course, automatically fill in the “http://” preamble when a user types a Web address.)’ –bits.blogs.nytimes

And do you know that in 2008, Google earned nearly $22 billion [/source] due to its advertising models, Google AdWords and Google AdSense? –electronics.howstuffworks

INTEREST RATE FUTURES - Part 2

Hello Friends, just an extension of our previous blog on interest rates futures where we touched upon the topic of interest rates future and what is it exactly.

Now we would understand that why is there need for interst rate futures and many more related aspects in this regard.

Here we go :

Why Interest rate futures?

Why Interest rate futures?

The risk associated with the interest rate is uncertain and it never has been constant in the past, infact it would not remain constant in future also.

The volatility of interest rates has increased manifold in the last couple of years and recorded 17.40% in 2008 as compared to 8.51% in 2007.

This high fluctuation in volatility increases risk and requires tools to manage those risks.

Interest rate futures are the product for managing such interest rate risk.

Backbone of Interest Rate Future:

NSE, India’s largest stock exchange, began interest rate futures and offers the same reliable features as it provide to its other products with the following advantages:

•Standardization and flexibility

•Price transparency and liquidity

•Leverage effect due to a wider collateral management

•Advance trading software and technological edge

•Centralized clearing supported by guaranteed settlement

Who can be a part of it?

The major market participants of interest rate futures are

•Banks and Primary Dealers

• Mutual Funds and Insurance Companies

• Corporate Houses and Financial Institutions,

•FIIs and NRIs

• Member Brokers and Retail Investors.

In Final part of this topic (which we would cover in our next blog), we would throw light on the benefits of the Interest Rate Futures and the future scenario related to Interest rate futures.

Stay Tuned

However, For More latest Industry, Gyan, Stock Market and Economy News Updates, Click Here

The Earth and The Church (Repubs, please dont read)

This is it. This is all we have. How can it be that our primary purpose is to make as much money and consume as much stuff as possible?

I am not that religious (although as a husband and parent I certainly lean toward the hope that there is something out there that takes care of our loved-ones, children especially) and I am certainly skeptical of many things that come from religious organizations, but I came across something of great interest from the Catholic Church.

Pope Benedict XIV recently released “Caritas in Veritate” (Charity in Truth), an encyclical addressing the conditions of humans across the world. According to the Pope, to develop humans to their full potential, we must revere the earth: “The environment is God’s gift to everyone, and in our use of it we have a responsibility towards the poor, towards future generations and towards humanity as a whole.”

This is one of the most profound statements in recent memory. The Catholic Church, at least, doesn’t see our time here as nothing more than an extended shopping spree. It doesn’t offer us the comfort of living for today, which we have been doing for so long. Nor does it favor the rights of the powerful over those of the poor, or anyone else for that matter. Strip miners, industrial polluters, land developers, all are equal to the least among us. Just doesn’t seem like it much at times.

The Pope goes on: “The way humanity treats the environment influences the way it treats itself, and vice versa. This invites contemporary society to a serious review of its life-style, which, in many parts of the world, is prone to hedonism and consumerism, regardless of their harmful consequences. What is needed is an effective shift in mentality which can lead to the adoption of new life-styles in which the quest for truth, beauty, goodness and communion with others for the sake of common growth are the factors which determine consumer choices, savings and investments.”

Lord, please don’t let Republicans read this. They would have a conniption. Sounds WAY like the “S” word.

Actually, they probably shouldn’t read ANY of the Pope’s letter. Some more samples:

• “Once profit becomes the exclusive goal, if it is produced by improper means and without the common good as its ultimate end, it risks destroying wealth and creating poverty.”
• “The development of peoples depends, above all, on a recognition that the human race is a single family working together in true communion, not simply a group of subjects who happen to live side by side.”
• “…to build a more human world for all, a world in which all will be able to give and receive, without one group making progress at the expense of the other…”

I have not read all 28,000 words in the letter. Admittedly, I have picked out those areas in which I am most interested. That said, I am heartened that one of the most monolithic institutions on earth is promoting justice. The whole piece is here: http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/benedict_xvi/encyclicals/documents/hf_ben-xvi_enc_20090629_caritas-in-veritate_en.html

INTEREST RATE FUTURES - What's That?

Hello Friends, its time to get down to the SMC analyst corner once again.

For past weeks we have been coming up with educational and informative inputs on topics like economic indicators, Positive Undertones in the Economy etc;

In this Blog now we would throw light on “Interest rate futures”.

What is Interest Rates Future?

What are interest rate futures?

An interest rate futures contract is “an agreement to buy or sell a debt instrument at a specified future date at a price that is fixed today.”

Interest rate futures are useful to those who are willing to trade in future interest rates and would like to benefit from interest rate movements.

The underlying instrument in this contract is 10 year National Coupon-bearing government of India (GOI) security, whereas the notional coupon is of 7% with semi-annual compounding interest rate.

The GOI securities are the underlying assets which should have a maturity status between seven-and-a-half years and 12 years from the first day of the delivery month.

Interest Rate Futures are the most widely traded derivatives instrument in the world.

The total outstanding notional principal amount in Interest Rate Futures is 30.09 times higher than equity index futures.

Interest rates are linked to a variety of economic conditions.

They can change rapidly, influencing investments and debt obligations.

In a market environment where long term debt issuance by the government is increasing and the demand for it is growing, there is a strong need for a cost efficient hedging instrument against interest rate.

In Next Coming parts, we would try to understand why Interest rate futures are needed, what is the backbone of interest rate futures and many more related aspects in this regard.

Stay Tuned

However, For More latest Industry, Gyan, Stock Market and Economy News Updates, Click Here

Is this about paying the cable bill or am I addicted to television?

When did it happen that I found it necessary to have every television channel available?  We live in challenging economic times and many of us search for ways to help relieve the financial burden.  Could I do without my cable?  For several months I would contemplate the value of cable television as I faithfully paid my monthly cable bill.

A few weeks ago I did an experiment to see if I could survive without this creature comfort and disconnected all the cable boxes in the house.  Oh Lord, help me!  I realized immediately that the issue was no longer financial but that I was addicted to television.  How did this happen?  I am a level headed and productive individual, or so I thought.  Why was I having withdrawals and wanting to stare at the dark massive screen in the room?   

The first three days were hell!  I came home from work and immediately pulled out the DVD and VHS collection to watch as many movies as I could each night to pass the time.  It didn’t matter what the movie was about – I craved entertainment.  Then on the fourth day it started getting old.  From that point forward I worked around the house, concentrated on my business more and emailed and phoned clients to keep in touch, enjoyed the deck and the pleasant weather we have been having, felt more relaxed and spoke with friends and family, and enjoyed my tennis leagues with a renewed competitive spirit. 

I began to realize that without any focused effort my energy dispersed to various targets and life was becoming more productive and enjoyable.  Oh sure, I missed flipping on the remote but did I miss the cable?  Yes I would be lying if I said I didn’t miss it but in this case change was necessary and a good experiment. 

The other day I wanted to watch a football game so I turned on my little portable television.  I keep it in my home office on my desk and listened as I worked on a client’s listing.  It dawned on me; I wonder if I could get reception on one of our televisions with this little antenna?  I took the antenna and plugged it in to the back of one of the TV’s.  Well, I’ll be damned!  The reception was fine on the local channels and the ballgame looked better on the bigger screen.

A solution! A satisfactory alternative is now available to the cable bill.  Yesterday, we made a trip to Best Buy and purchased three indoor digital antennas for our televisions.  This is a very small investment for the compromise of dropping the cable completely.   Tomorrow we will contact the cable company and give our 30-day notice to cancel.

I learned several lessons during this experiment.  The most important is that changes in my daily routine were necessary to be more active in my day-to-day interactions.  A challenge! – Now, can I continue to make progress and transition my television time to other activities?  We will see…

Black Wealth in Tax Havens

Black wealth bleeds the national economy and world economy altogether. The amount of tax evaded stocked in the tax havens are shocking. More than $4 trillions have been deposited in the safety lockers of tax havens which have been protected by the developed world in the name of freedom.

The Times of India writes (10 October 2009)

As economies were sucked into the black hole of the recession last year, the underbelly of the moneyed world suddenly found itself exposed. The
tax haven was under siege. Why should the big boys whose greed had gutted corporations be allowed to laugh all the way to their Swiss bank? The serpent of scrutiny slithered into the paradis fiscaux (financial paradise , pronounced paradee fisco), and it has yet to leave.

The immediate cause of the uproar against tax havens was fortuitous. Bradley Birkenfeld, a banker with UBS (Union Bank of Switzerland), blew the whistle on how this giant bank was helping US citizens evade tax. Across the Atlantic, Heinrich Kieber, a computer programmer in LGT, Liechtenstein’s biggest bank, copied details of 1,400 clients with 4,500 beneficiaries in 13 countries, put it on a CD and sold it to the German government for 4.2 million Euros. More worms crawled out of the woodwork and the tax haven vault soon split wide open.

So, what are these tax havens – aka tax shelters, offshore financial centres (OFCs), secrecy jurisdictions? How have they evolved, how do they work and how on earth does one get information from them?

Estimates of wealth salted away in these havens are difficult to work out. After all, the whole point is to keep the money secret. But several international bodies have done detailed calculations and come up with eye-popping numbers. According to a report by the Washington-based Global Financial Integrity (GFI) programme, about $11.5 trillion is held in these havens. The economic significance of these hidey holes can be gauged from the fact that over 60 per cent of global trade is routed through them.

The GFI report provides a glimpse of where all this wealth is coming from. It estimates that between 2002 and 2006, over $3 trillion flowed into tax havens from the developing world. That’s an average growth of a staggering 18 per cent per year. India itself lost over $115 billion during this period – Rs 1.1 lakh crore per year. To get a handle on this staggering figure, try this for size: It’s about three times the money spent by the mid-day meal scheme over the last years to feed 120 million primary school children, and it’s more than the country’s combined budget for health, education and internal security.

The most common reason for the existence of tax havens is that people and corporations with huge amounts of wealth want to escape taxes. If your money is stashed away in Switzerland or the Cayman Islands, you could sleep easy. Tax rates are negligible or even zero and nobody – not even governments – can pry into the details of your transactions or account.

Tax Justice Network, an advocacy group, identified 69 tax havens across the world. These include countries (like Switzerland and Liechtenstein), dependencies and territories (like the British Virgin Islands or Cayman Islands) and special zones within countries where a separate legal system has been ‘ring-fenced’ to provide tax benefits (like in New York or Malaysia). The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a club of 30 rich countries, currently lists 38 tax havens, leaving out small tax shelter jurisdictions within larger countries. In addition, OECD has brought out a list of 21 countries with potentially harmful tax regimes. An IMF study, focusing only on those tax havens that provide financial services, identifies 46 OFCs.

It is a common misconception that all of this money is crime-related . Raymond Baker, who runs the GFI programme , estimated in 2007 that global illicit financial flows amount to between $1.1 trillion and $1.6 trillion annually . About 30 per cent is of criminal or corrupt origin. The rest – $700 bn to $1 tn – is proceeds from commercial abuses. Companies trading internationally often take recourse to mispricing , transfer pricing and even fake transactions, generating millions as illegal profits. These do not appear on their individual books and can be located only by comparing accounts of all independently held subsidiaries.

Alex Cobham of the Oxford Council on Good Governance conservatively estimates that poorer countries lose $385 billion in revenues annually due to tax evasion. Angel GurrÃa , OECD secretary-general , says, “Developing countries are estimated to lose to tax havens almost three times what they get from developed countries in aid.”

Moreover, the huge concentration of mobile money in tax shelters is also cause for instability in the financial system . It flows into equity or derivatives markets when the pickings are good and flees when better options are available elsewhere. That’s not how good cash should behave. But then, when have money and morals walked together?

Kerry-Lugar bill : The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan

Separating Myth from Fact on The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act of 2009

Courtesy: Senator John Kerry

The United States wants to transform its relationship with Pakistan into a deeper, broader, long-term strategic engagement with the people of Pakistan. The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act (S.1707), also known as the Kerry-Lugar bill, was designed to help turn the page in our bilateral relationship by moving beyond a military relationship to one where the United States engages directly with the people of Pakistan as a true ally and friend.

The heart of this bill gives the people of Pakistan $7.5 billion (Rs. 62,500 crore) over five years (2010-2014) in nonmilitary aid. This bill should be seen for what it is — a true sign of U.S. friendship to the people of Pakistan. The language in the bill was carefully negotiated between Senators Kerry and Lugar and Representative Berman with the concurrence of the U.S. State and Defense Departments. The bill was passed unanimously on a bipartisan basis by the U.S. Congress in September 2009.

Here is what the bill really does.

MYTH: The $7.5 billion (Rs. 62, 500 crores) authorized by the bill comes with strings attached for the people of Pakistan.

FACT: There are no conditions on Pakistan attached to these funds.

The $7.5 billion (Rs. 62,500 crore) authorized is all for non-military aid. These funds are unconditioned— they are a pledge of U.S. friendship to the Pakistani people. There are strict measures of financial accountability on these funds that Congress is imposing on the U.S. executive branch—not the Pakistani government, to make sure the money is being spent properly and for the purposes intended. Such accountability measures have been welcomed by Pakistani commentators to ensure that funds meant for schools, roads and clinics actually reach the Pakistani people and are not wasted.

MYTH: The bill impinges on Pakistan’s sovereignty.

FACT: Nothing in the bill threatens Pakistani sovereignty. Period.

This bill is an extended hand of friendship, from the people of America to the people of Pakistan. It will fund schools, roads, energy infrastructure, and medical clinics. Even when Americans are going through a deep recession and tough economic times, the United States is pledging $7.5 billion (Rs. 62,500 crore) as a long-term commitment to Pakistan. Those seeking to undermine this partnership, to advance their own narrow partisan or institutional agendas, are doing a serious disservice to the people of the United States and of Pakistan.

MYTH: The bill places onerous conditions on U.S. military aid to Pakistan that interfere in Pakistan’s internal affairs and imply that Pakistan supports terrorism and nuclear proliferation.

FACT: The conditions on military aid reinforce the stated policy of the Government of Pakistan, major Pakistani opposition parties, and the Pakistani military and are the basis of bilateral cooperation between the United States and Pakistan.

This bill does not discuss the levels of U.S. military aid to Pakistan, which will be determined year by year depending on events on the ground. The purpose of this bill is to focus on nonmilitary assistance to the people of Pakistan. To the extent that the bill authorizes military aid, the conditions require the President of the United States to certify to the U.S. Congress that:

· Pakistan “is continuing to cooperate with the United States” on nuclear nonproliferation;

· Pakistan “is making significant efforts towards combating terrorist groups,” including Al Qaeda, the Taliban and their affiliates; and

· The Pakistani military is not “subverting the political or judicial processes” of the nation.

Each of these conditions is the stated policy of the Pakistani government, the major Pakistani opposition parties, and the Pakistani military. The conditions ask nothing beyond what Pakistan’s own leaders have already promised. Pakistan and the United States share common goals to bolster security and democracy in the region and have been working together as allies towards these goals. The language in the bill reflects this understanding and commitment by the people of Pakistan in furthering regional stability and democracy.

MYTH: The bill requires U.S. oversight on promotions and other internal operations of the Pakistani military.

FACT: There is absolutely no such requirement or desire.

This disinformation stems from an item to be included in one of the monitoring reports: it requires the Secretary of State to describe the extent to which civilian authorities exercise control over the Pakistani military. It does not require such control, nor does it place any restriction whatsoever on Pakistan. This benchmark, like all benchmarks in the monitoring reports, is informational. It presents a data-point on which U.S. policy-makers can base decisions.

MYTH: The bill expands the Predator program of drone attacks on targets within Pakistan.

FACT: There is absolutely nothing in the bill related to drones.

This bill is about delivering economic development, education, health care, and other services to the people of Pakistan. There is nothing in this bill on the drone program.

MYTH: The bill funds activities within Pakistan by private U.S. security firms, such as Dyncorp and Blackwater/Xe.

FACT: The bill does not include any language on private U.S. security firms.

The issue of how private security firms operate in Pakistan has nothing to do with this bill. The laws governing such firms – which are employed by many U.S. embassies and consulates throughout the world – are not affected by this bill in any way.

MYTH: The bill aims for an expanded U.S. military footprint in Pakistan.

FACT: The bill does not provide a single dollar for U.S. military operations.

All of the money authorized in this bill is for non-military, civilian purposes.

MYTH: The United States is expanding its physical footprint in Pakistan, using the bill as a justification for why the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad needs more space and security.

FACT: As the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad works diligently over the next five years to properly distribute the $7.5 billion (Rs. 62,500 crore) to the people of Pakistan, it will need to take into account its own personnel and security needs to make sure it has the right staff with the right expertise on hand. This is common sense.

As part of this bill, we are asking the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad to take an enormous amount of responsibility and oversight. The Embassy may need to add on additional staff to help implement billions of dollars aid. This is a logical step and should not be read as anything more than that. Such staffing decisions will follow the normal course of conduct, as governed by agreements between the Governments of Pakistan and the United States.

Source – http://kerry.senate.gov/cfm/record.cfm?id=318845

Washington State taxable sales decline 14% during second quarter

Taxable retail sales declined 14 percent to $25 billion during the second quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008, the Washington State Department of Revenue reported today.
The April-through-June sales decline is the largest one on record. Sales dropped 12.8 percent during the first quarter of 2009, and 10.8 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008, the second- and third-largest declines since reliable records have been kept beginning in 1974.

Pierce County was even worse than the state average with a drop in taxable retail sales of 14.1 percent.

Retail trade, a component of all taxable retail sales that includes retailers, but excludes other industries such as services and construction, dropped 10.7 percent to $11.1 billion.

Among the largest industries, retail sales from construction dropped 26 percent to $4.3 billion; motor vehicle and parts dropped 21 percent to $2.3 billion; accommodations and food services dropped 5.2 percent to $2.7 billion; general merchandise stores declined 0.4 percent to $1.6 billion, the retail component of wholesale trade declined 18.8 percent to $1.9 billion, miscellaneous retailers dropped 17.3 percent to $1.2 billion, information services dropped 4.1 percent to $1.2 billion, and building materials, garden equipment and supplies dropped 11.5 percent to $1.3 billion.

Az outsourcingról

Forrás: HRportal.hu

Hazánkban korántsem egyértelmű még az outsourcing megítélése, bár egyre több cég éri el azt az érettségi és méretbeli szintet, amely szükségessé teszi a kiszolgáló területek vállalaton kívüli, külső szolgáltatóhoz helyezését. A bérszámfejtés, a pénzügy, számvitel például tipikusan olyan területek, amelyeket jövedelmezőbb ily módon működtetni.

Napjainkra sok cég felismerte, hogy egy vállalkozás számára a leggyümölcsözőbb, ha lehetőség szerint minden erejét és figyelmét az alaptevékenységére összpontosítja. Európában az “úttörők” már több mint 10 éve felismerték ezt, s döntöttek úgy, hogy bizonyos, elsősorban tevékenységük profiljába szorosan nem tartozó tevékenységeket “kiszerveznek”, s felelősséggel, mindenestől külső vállalkozóra bíznak.

Költségmegtakarítás, minőségjavulás, professzionalizmus, rugalmasság, mentesülés bizonyos terhektől, felelősségtől. Ezek azok az alapkritériumok, amelyeket a vállalatok általában elvárnak az outsourcingtól, legyen szó humán szolgáltatási, pénzügyi, számviteli, informatikai, vagy egyéb területről. Magyarországon korántsem egyértelmű még e tevékenység megítélése. Bár könnyen belátható, hogy hazánkban is egyre több cég éri el azt az érettségi és méretbeli szintet, mely szükségessé teszi az úgynevezett kiszolgáló területek vállalaton kívüli, külső szolgáltatóhoz helyezését.

Amennyiben egy cég a kiszervezés mellett dönt és körültekintően választja ki partnerét, akkor feladatainak döntő többségére professzionális, számon kérhető megoldást kap. Ily módon megszabadulhat a szoros határidők, feladatok nyomon követése, folyamatos képzések, valamint a kiszervezett területeken bekövetkező hirtelen felfutások okozta plusz feladatok terhétől.

A bérszámfejtés és a pénzügy/számvitel tipikusan olyan területek, amelyeket jövedelmezőbb külsős cég bevonásával működtetni.

A bérszámfejtési – és a pénzügy/számviteli tevékenységek kiszervezésekor célszerű figyelembe venni, hogy a szolgáltató milyen szintű informatikai háttérrel rendelkezik. Érdemes olyan partnert választani, amely professzionális IT támogatottságot élvez, hiszen ez esetben az online elérhetőség mellett a magas fokú IT biztonság, személyre szabott jogosultsági rendszer, egységes riportolási struktúra és a folyamatos megbízható működés garantálható. A magas szintű IT támogatás segítségével a kiszervezett tevékenységek pontossága, gyorsasága, nyomon követhetősége növekszik. Egy professzionális IT hátterű szolgáltató lehetővé teszi a vállalkozások számára, hogy lekerüljön válláról az adatok előkészítése és szinkronizálása okozta teher.

Ma már nem lehetetlen, hogy a bérszámfejtés output adatszolgáltatás folyamatából eltűnjön a papír. Fontos, hogy kiszervezés esetén a megbízónak lehetősége van arra, hogy az alkalmazás igazodjon az ő igényeihez, és ne ő igazodjon az alkalmazáshoz. A fejlett információs technológia eredményeképpen magas szintű az adatvédelem és az adatbiztonság, emellett minden adat és információ könnyen, riportok, statisztikák formájában hozzáférhető, amely az online felületnek köszönhetően magas szintű kényelmet garantál a megbízó számára.

Bérszámfejtés kiszervezése esetén a kiszervezés mellett döntő vállalkozás az alábbi előnyöket élvezheti:

- költséget takaríthat meg, hiszen a szolgáltatási díj alacsonyabb, mint a munkáltatói terhekkel fizetendő bérek, a szervezetet terhelő egyéb járulékos költségek, a szoftver bérlésének, vásárlásának, és folyamatos fejlesztésének, valamint a munkatársak képzésének költségei,
- nem kell a jogszabályok folyamatos változásainak nyomon követésével foglalkoznia,
- a szolgáltató számon kérhető és elszámoltatható, illetve felelősségre is vonható,
- akár on-line hozzáférést kaphat az alkalmazott szoftverhez, amely segítségével folyamatosan tájékozódhat a bérek, járulékok, bejelentések aktuális helyzetéről,
- társadalombiztosításhoz kapcsolódó feladatait teljes körűen partnerére bízhatja,
- egyéni igényeinek megfelelő vezető támogató riportokat, statisztikákat kaphat,
- outsourcing partnere van kapcsolatban a hatósági szervekkel,
- adatait teljes biztonságban tudhatja,
- akár bér, tb, adó és HR tanácsadást is igénybe vehet,
- profi szakemberekkel működhet együtt.

Ugyanakkor az alábbiakkal is szembe kell néznie:

- szervezeti változások végrehajtása, a bérszámfejtési tevékenységgel foglalkozó munkatársak elhelyezése, áthelyezése, esetleges elbocsátása,
- átállás okozta változások kezelése
- adatok migrációja

Vannak outsourcing cégek, amelyek a bérszámfejtés kiszervezésen túl megrendelői igény esetén a pénzügy/azámvitel és az informatika gondját is leveszik a megbízó válláról. A könyvelési feladatok kiszervezésekor szintén online hozzáféréssel működő, egyedi alkalmazás várja a megrendelőt. A szolgáltató képzett szakembereinek elsődleges feladata a pénzügyi és számviteli teendők naprakész ellátása és menedzselése.

Csakúgy, mint a bérszámfejtés esetében, a megbízó a naprakész jogszabályi ismeretekre építő tanácsadást is igénybe vehet.

Megéri kiszervezni a könyvelését és pénzügyi tevékenységét, ha:

- csökkenteni szeretné a költségeit,
- úgy gondolja, hogy segítené a munkáját, ha a könyvelésnek megfelelően riportok állnának a rendelkezésére,
- csökkenteni szeretné az adminisztrációját,
- szeretné, ha a hatósági ellenőrzésekkor a kötelező feladatok nagy részét nem Önnek kellene elvégezni,
- szeretne részletesebb információkhoz jutni, akár termékenkénti jövedelmezőséget is figyelni,
- szeretné növelni adatainak védelmét, biztonságát.

Megéri könyvelőt váltania, ha:

- Könyvelője nehezen tartja a lépést az aktuális jogszabályi változásokkal,
- Gondot okoz számára, hogy naprakész legyen.

A fent leírtak kapcsán felmerülhet a kérdés:

Megoldást jelenthet-e a kiszervezés a gazdasági válság hatásainak enyhítésében?

A válasz igen is, meg nem is. Bizonyos cégméret alatt nem feltétlenül térül meg a kiszervezés, viszont abban az esetben, ha egy cég nagyobb létszámmal működik és fel van készülve a változások kezelésére, megfelelő menedzselésére, már rövidebb távon is kézzel fogható, költség-, és adminisztrációcsökkenésben megmutatkozó előnyöket tapasztalhat.

Látható, hogy a vállalkozásoknál egyre nagyobb teret nyer a piacon a profiljukba nem illő feladatok kiszervezése. Ez egyrészről a vállalkozások életében végbemenő szemléletváltásnak, másrészt a szolgáltatók szolgáltatási színvonal emelkedésének köszönhető. Az outsourcing piacon hosszú távon azok a szolgáltatók könyvelhetnek el sikereket, amelyek kiemelt figyelemmel kezelik az ügyfeleiket, magas minőségi színvonalat képviselnek, komplex szolgáltatást nyújtanak és folyamatos innovációval a megbízókkal szoros együttműködésben segítik azok munkáját.

Information for survival

My friend Randy:  I applaud whatever country or government develops the means to preserve its people and DNA (This requires not putting all our human eggs in one small, little earth basket). Debt is a man-made construct; it’s a motivator only. What is sad to know is that debt, money and credit are devices to get people to do what they should want to do for free or b/c it’s intrinsically important. Information may enable us, but it doesn’t motivate us to do what’s needed to survive as a species.

Michael:  The first George Bush was a cable news elected President.  Barack Obama thanks the Internet for his election.  Information stops letting elected officials from getting away with stuff.  Why are we in Afghanistan?  As you said, it might be debt breaking us.

For Immediate Release

Contact Person:                         Ace Custodio        

Contact Company:                     Asset Management, LLC

                                                9510 Rommel Drive

                                                Columbia  MD  21046

Voice Phone #                    410-988-2511

Fax #                                       410-988-2417

E- mail address:                   info@camtrading.com

URL:                                         http://www.camtrading.com/

Web log:                www.custodioassetmanagement.wordpress.com   

As we approach our 4-year anniversary this month, we are proud to announce that the strategy has achieved a compounded, net-of-fees gain amounting to +152.47% since inception.  This is great news for those who have been invested with us prior to the start of 2009.

Custodio Asset Management investors should know where their money is invested and what CAM is doing to maximize investor portfolio values while minimizing losses in these difficult times.  We pride ourselves on our completely transparent investment strategy and performance.
 
Admittedly, this has been a challenging year.  While we continue to add new assets under management, the volatile market conditions have temporarily caused our system to negatively impact our strategic formula. The result has been a negative return on recently acquired investment values. 

For the first time in our history, the market has outperformed CAM in recent months.  Between September 2008 – September 2009, the S&P 500 stands at -17.6% while CAM stands at -5.1%. 

CAM’s goal is to gain, not to lose less than the market.  That is our performance record.  These are temporary setbacks that have led us to broaden our field of view in order to gain a better perspective of the market’s direction.  CAM has experienced setbacks of this sort several times in the past, and we have always approached it head-on, taking the opportunity to improve our methods and increase our performance success for our clients.  We are committed to keeping our clients informed about the strategic adjustments we deem necessary to protect and grow your investment capital.  

Accordingly, over the past few months, we have undertaken a complete review of our proprietary methods and made many adjustments so that we are able to better deal with the new trading conditions in the equity markets.  We launched our new strategy in the month of September with a trial on a very conservative amount of exposure to client accounts.  We are pleased to announce that of the 7 trades placed using our revised strategy, 6 produced profit, yielding an accuracy rating of 85.7% for the month of September.   This is very exciting for CAM clients!

Moving forward, we will continue to tweak our methods and gradually increase the amount of exposure to investors’ accounts.  The greater the exposure, the greater the return on a successful trade.  We are confident that we can fully implement the new strategy in the remaining three trading months of the year and redirect our performance into positive territory.

We thank our clients for the opportunity to be of service.  We remain available and eager to answer any questions our clients or interested parties have about our products and services.